Predicting Financial Distress for Listed MENA Firms

Abstract

Financial distress prediction gives an early warning about defaulting risk for firms; thus, it is a real concern of the entire economy.

Purpose: To examine the determinants of financial distress across MENA region countries, by using definitions of distress and historical data from active listed firms in the region.

Methodology: logistic regression is run on firm-specific variables and a set of macroeconomic variables to develop a prediction model to examine the effect of these predictors on the probability of financial distress.

Findings: it has been found that after controlling for country effects, accounting ratios, firm size, and macroeconomic variables provided an acceptable prediction model for listed MENA firms.

Originality: a gap exists in the literature of developing countries’ prediction for financial distress. Many studies addressed bankruptcy prediction for a certain country in the region, however, a limited number of researches approached predicting distressed models for listed firms in the region.