Numerical Model and Forecasting Potential of Aircraft Weather Hazards over Kenya

Francis Jagero


The study investigated the forecasting potential of aircraft weather hazards over Kenya using numerical model. The various causes of accidents/incidents were identified using analyzed investigated weather-related aviation hazards data obtained from Kenya Civil Aviation Authority database system from 2008 through 2014. The parameters analyzed included the Winds, Temperature, Relative humidity, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Lifted Index (LI) and Dew Point Temperature. Their combined effect was able to provide the means of identifying the areas of strong convection. The model was run on a grid point distance resolution of 10 km and runs finite differencing scheme, based on Taylor series. Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) which is embedded on the model upon installation, was used as the default post processing tool. Key findings revealed that Wind, Fog, Turbulence, Heavy rain showers, and low ceiling influenced aircraft operations. It was shown that the majority of the hazards were linked with cumulonimbus clouds. Landing phase of flight affected aviation most.

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