Institutions, Macroeconomic Policies and Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from Panel Data

Haruna M. Aliero, Muftau Olaiya Olarinde

Abstract


This study investigates the effects of institution and macroeconomic policy on economic growth in Africa, using panel Cointegration technique to analysed data obtained from a panel  of 50 African Countries covering a period of 25years (1990-2014). The results confirm that declining growth rate in Africa is due to poor management of macroeconomic policies. A weak turning point is also confirmed to exist for government size in the short run; in the long run it becomes more pronounce. The Wald restrictions tests of causality ascertain that institutions lead economic growth performance in the short run, while poor economic growth performance impaired the capacity required in building strong institutions which in turn stunts growth in the long run. Therefore, African leaders should tilt their expenditure in favour of human capital development and strong institution, ensure intra-regional trade and adopt private sector led – economic growth strategy.


Full Text:

PDF

References


Abranmovitz, M. (1956), "Resources and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870. American Journal Review, 46, 5-23.

Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2005b). Unbundling Institutions. Journal of Political Economy, 113(5), 949-995. https://doi.org/10.1086/432166

Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2005a). Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume IA. Edited by Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf, pp.387-472. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10481

Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. (2012). Why Nations Fail?. New York Crown Publishers

Acemoglu D., Johnson, S. & Robinson, J. (2000). The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369

Adebiyi A. M., & Babatope-Obasa, B. (2004). Institutional Framework, Interest Rate Policy and the Financing of the Nigerian Manufacturing Sub-Sector. Africa Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage Forum Paper No 2004 Lord Charles Hotel, Somerset West, South Africa 13 - 15 October 2004

Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., Ranciere, R., & Rogoff, K. (2006). Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development. NBER Working Paper No. 12117. https://doi.org/10.3386/w12117

Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?" European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.11.001

Alvarez M., Cheibub J.A., Limongi F., & Przeworski A. (2000). Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Material Well-Being in the World. 1950-1990, Cambridge; Cambridge University Press.

Arouri, M. E. H., Ben Y. A., M'henni, H., & Rault, C. (2012), Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in Middle East and North African Countries. Energy Policy, Elsevier, 45(C), 342-349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.042

Babatunde, A. (2009). Determinats of Export Performance in Sub-Sharan Africa. In Adenikinju A., Busari D. and Olofin S. (eds.), Applied Econometrics and Macroeconometric Modelling in Nigeria (pp. 327-347). Ibadan University Press. Ibadan.

Balami D. H. (2006). Macroeconomic Theory and Practice (pp. 108-127). Salawe Prints, Maiduguri, Nigeria.

Barajas, A., Chami, R., & Yousefi, S. R. (2013). The impact finance and Growth Nexus Reexamined: Do all Countries Benefited Equally? IMF Working Paper No. 13/130, Pp.1-33.

https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484372104.001

Barro R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 95(5), part 2, 103-125. https://doi.org/10.1086/261726

Barro R. J. (2013). Inflation and Economic Growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, 14(1), 121-144, May.

Bassanini A., & Scarpetta, S. (2002). Does Human Capital Matter for Growth in OECD Countries"? A Pooled Mean-group Approach. Economics Letters, 74, 399-405. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00569-9

Bassanini, A., & Scarpetta, S. (2001). The Driving Force of Economic Growth: Evidence for the OECD Countries. OECD Economic Studies, 33, 2001/11. https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-v2001-art10-en

Bloom, D. E., & Sachs, J. D. (1998). Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa". Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.2, pp. 207-295. In Acemoglu D. Johnson S., and Robinson J. A. (2005), Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth." Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume IA. Edited by Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf, pp. 387-472. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534695

Chang, H.-J. (2011). Institution and Economic Development: Theory, Policy and History. Journal of Institutional Economics, 7(4), 473-498. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137410000378

Chukwuma, A., & Aldo, C. (2013). Economic Diversification and Macroeconomic Policies: Re-Examining the Missing Link in Africa's Industrialization Strategies. A conference paper presented at UNU-WIDER's conference, held in Helsinki on 24-25 June 2013.

Denison E. F. (1967). Why Growth Rates Differ. Washington D. C., The Brookings Institution.

Dougherty, C., & Dale, W. J. (1996). International Comparisons of the Sources of Economic Growth. American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 86, 25-29.

Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (2001). What have we learned from decade of Empirical Research on Growth? Its not Factor Acummu;ation : Stylized fact and Growth models. World Bank Economic review, 15(2), 177-219.

Engen, E., & Sklinner, J. (1992). Fiscal policy and Economic Growth. NBER Working PaperNo. 4223. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/15.2.177

Easterly, W., Micahel, K., Lant, P., & Lawrence, H. S. (1993). Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, pp.459-483. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90026-C

Ekpo, A. H. (2013). Rethinking Institutions and Economic Development: Is there a any Framework?" Being a paper presented at the 54th Annual Conference of the Nigerian Economic Society (NES), Abuja, Nigeria Sept, 17-19

Flachaire, E., García-Pe-alosa, C., & Konte, M. (2014). Political versus Economic Institutions in the Growth Process. Journal of Comparative Economics, 42(1), 212-229, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2013.05.001

Fosu, A. K. (2013). Institutions and African Economies: An Overview. Journal of African Economies, 22(4), 491-498. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejt016

García-Belenguer, F., & Santos, M. S. (2013). Investment rates and the Aggregate Production Function. European Economic Review, 63, 150-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.06.007

Gennaioli, N., La Portal, R., Florencio, Lopez-de-Silanes, & Shleifer, A. (2014) Human Capital and Regional Development. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(1), 105-164. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjs050

Guisan, Maria-Carmen. (2009). Government Effectiveness, Education, Economic Development and Well-Being: Analysis of European Countries in Comparison with the United States and Canada 2000-2007. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 9-1, 39-55.

ILO (2012) Global Employment Outlook: Bleak Labour Market Prospects for Youth. International Labour Organisation. September, 2012. www.ilo.org/publns

International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). (2014). Political Risk Guide. New York: PRS Group. http://www.prsgroup.com (accessed November 2014)

Isard, P. (2007). Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies. IMF Working Paper, WP/07/296. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451868593.001

Jalilian, H., Kirkpatrick, C., & Parker, D. (2006). The Impact of Regulation on Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Cross-Country Analysis. World Development, 35(1), 87-103.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.09.005

Jens A., Bassanini, A., & Scarpetta S. (2011), Solow or Lucas? Testing speed of convergence on a panel of OECD countries. Research in Economics, 65, 110-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2010.11.005

Jorgenson, D. W., Frank, M. G., & Babara, M. F. (1987). Prductivity and U.S. Economic Growth. Cambridge MA, Harvard University Press.

Kallon, M. K. (2013), Growth Empirics: Evidence from Sierra Leone. African Development Review, 25(2), 215-230, June 2013. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2013.12025.x

Kaufmann, D., Aart, K., & Massimo, M. (2009). Governance Matters VIII Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2008. The World Bank Development Research Group Macroeconomics and Growth Team Policy Research, Working Paper, WPS4978. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4978

Krugman, P. (1994). The Myth of Asias Miracle. Foreign Affairs, 73(6), 62-78. https://doi.org/10.2307/20046929

Kui-Wai, L., & Xianbo, Z. (2011).Evidence Cross-country Convergence and Growth: from Nonparametric and Semiparametric Analysis. Paper submitted to APEC Study Center Consortium Conference September 22 - 23, 2011, San Francisco, USA

Leong, C. K. (2007). A Tale of Two Countries: Openness and Growth in China and India. Dynamics, Economic Growth and International Trade (DEGIT), Conference Paper, pp: 1-26.

Lipset, S. M. (1960) (1981). The Political Man: The Social bases of Politics. Baltimore, M.D:John Hopkins

Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(3), 3-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7

Mahmud, H. (2009). Why Has Growth Slowed in Sub-Sahara Africa? A System IV-GMM Approach Economic and Financial Review. Central Bank of Nigeria Vol. 47, No. 3, Sept., 2009.

Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N., (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407-437. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477

Martins, I., & Olarinde, M. (2014). Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2014.923323

Mbulawa, S. (2015). Determinants of Economic Growth in Southern Africa Development Community: The Role of Institutions. Applied Economics and Finance, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.11114/aef.v2i2.782

Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2010). Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Developing Countries. Energy Policy, 38(1), 661-666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.005

North, D. C. (1991): Institutions. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 97-112. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.97

O'Connell, S. A., & Ndulu B. J. (2000). Africa's Growth Experience: A Focus on Sources of Growth, Framework paper for the AERC Explaining African Economic Growth project: AERC Nairobi, Kenya. http://www.cid.harvard.edu/cidpeople/bates/research.htm

Ouechtati, I., & Zaouali, A. (2013). Comovements and Structural Factors of Macroeconomic Volatility in Developing and Transition Economies: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(120, 1562-1582.

Owen A. L., Julio Videras et Lewis Davis (2009). Do all Countries Follow the Same Growth Process." Journal of Economic Growth, 14(4),December 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-009-9046-x

Perman, R., & Stern, D. I. (2003). Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests that the Environmental Kuznets curve does not exist. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 47(3), pp. 325-347. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.00216

Rebelo S. (1991). Long run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth: Journal of Political Economy, 99, 500-521. https://doi.org/10.1086/261764

Rodrik, D. (2009). The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth. John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. September 2008. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0020

Romer P. M. (1986). Increasing Return to Scale and Long-run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002-37. https://doi.org/10.1086/261420

Romer P. M. (1991). Capital, Labour and Productivity. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, Special Issue, 337-367. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534785

Ros J. (2013). Rethinking Economic Development, Growth and Institutions (1st ed.) Oxford, Oxford University Press

Sarwar Saima, M., Wasif, S., & Abdul Rauf, B. (2013). Role of Institutions and Economic Growth in Asian Countries" Developing Country Studies, 3(2), 80-90.

Siddiqui, D. A., & Ahmed, Q. M. (2009). The Causal Relationship between Institutions and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan Economy: MPRA Paper No. 19745.

Solow R. M. (1957). Technical Change and Aggregate Production Function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926047

Stern, D. I., & Cutler, J. C. (2004). Energy and Economic Growth, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Working Paper in Economics No. 0410. Retrieved from http://www.rpi.edu/dept/economics/www/workingpapers

Temple J. R. W. (2001). Heterogeneity and the Growth Process Generalizations that Aren't? Evidence on Education and Growth. European Economic Review, 45, 905-918. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00116-7

Umoru, D., & Matthew, I. E. (2013). Industrial Development and Trade Liberalisation In Nigeria: Is There A Significant Correlation?. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4), 493-509.

Utpal Kumar, De, & Manoranjan, P. (2011). Dimensions of Globalisation and Their Effects on Economic Growth and Human Development Index. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 1(1), 1-13.

Wong, A., & Zhou, X. (2011). Development Financial Markets and Economic Growth : Review of Hong Kong, China, Japan, USA and UK. International Journal of Economics and Finace, 111-116. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v3n2p111

World Bank (2013). World Development Indicators. The World Bank, Washington DC. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/reports/tableview.aspx#. Retrieved from the web on 15th August, 2013.

Young A. (1994). The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 641-680. https://doi.org/10.3386/w4680




DOI: https://doi.org/10.5296/jad.v5i2.13241

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2019 Journal of Asian Development



Journal of Asian Development  ISSN 2377-9594   E-mail: jad@macrothink.org

Copyright © Macrothink Institute 

To make sure that you can receive messages from us, please add the 'macrothink.org' domains to your e-mail 'safe list'. If you do not receive e-mail in your 'inbox', please check your 'spam' or 'junk' folder.