The Impact of Population Aging on China’s Carbon Emissions: The Moderating Effect of Green Technology Innovation

Abstract

Against the backdrop of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, population aging and green technology innovation have become key factors influencing carbon emissions. This study investigates the impact of population aging on carbon emissions using a fixed-effects model with panel data from 30 Chinese provinces for 2015–2024. To address endogeneity, we employ 2SLS with lagged population aging as the instrumental variable. Results show that population aging significantly reduces carbon emissions. Green technology innovation strengthens this reduction effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the mitigation effect of aging is significant only in developed and low-aging regions, while in deeply aging regions, carbon reduction effects may be offset by rising energy demand. These findings provide empirical implications for formulating differentiated low-carbon policies under population aging and green transition.