Factors Influencing Agricultural Economic Development in Guangdong Province

Abstract

As China's largest economic province and a major agricultural region, Guangdong has long ranked among the top in core indicators of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery. In 2024, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Guangdong reached 971.861 billion yuan, with the total agricultural output value at 470.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.21%. Since the reform and opening up, leveraging its subtropical climate endowment, geographical proximity to Hong Kong and Macao, and continuous rural reform, Guangdong has gradually established a sound modern agricultural industrial system and steadily enhanced its comprehensive agricultural production capacity. To further promote the high-quality development of Guangdong's agricultural economy and identify the key influencing factors, this paper selects 17 core indicators across five dimensions: agricultural production inputs, agricultural water conservancy status, agricultural production scale, agricultural output, demand and income, and agricultural technology and development, covering the period from 2015 to 2024. Two machine learning (ML) models—support vector machines and neural networks—are constructed, and SHAP is employed to rank indicator importance and analyze explanatory power. The study ultimately identifies five core indicators that drive Guangdong's agricultural economic development. The findings provide a scientific basis for the precise formulation of agricultural economic policies in Guangdong. By clarifying the core influencing indicators, policymakers can rationally allocate regional advantageous resources and introduce targeted measures, such as optimizing the agricultural support and farmer subsidy system to improve input efficiency; advancing rural water supply facilities and intelligent water conservancy systems, and establishing a provincial-level digital management platform for water conservancy; and fostering leading agricultural enterprises, supporting large-scale production bases, and improving the level of large-scale agricultural operation. These measures can effectively enhance the precision of agricultural economic policy support and promote the high-quality development of Guangdong's agricultural economy.