Administrative Capacity or Regional Need? An Ex-ante Analysis of Public Investment Allocation in Greece: Evidence from the “Antonis Tritsis” Programme

Abstract

This paper offers an initial exploration of the spatial allocation of public investment under the "Antonis Tritsis" Programme, a national funding instrument allocated to local government within Greece’s highly centralised fiscal system.It examines whether funding allocation is driven primarily by regional needs or by the administrative capacity of regions. This study draws on administrative data covering all infrastructure projects approved in Greece during the 2020-2025 period at the regional level (NUTS-2) and employs descriptive statistical measures, inequality indices and alignment indices to explore the relationship   between investment allocation and socioeconomic indicators. The findings reveal significant spatial inequalities at the project approval stage, suggesting that allocation processes introduce territorial disparities even before investments are implemented. The analysis does not provide strong empirical support of the need-based allocation hypothesis, while administrative capacity seems to play an important, albeit not exclusive, role. In general, allocation can be interpreted as a combination of mechanisms in which regional need, administrative capacity and program design features interplay to determine allocation. The study contributes to the international literature by highlighting the importance of ex ante analysis and proposing a replicable empirical framework for assessing public investments allocation in contexts characterised by institutional disparities, such as the Greek case.