Relationship between Gross Domestic Product and Accident in China

Rujun Wang, Jinqiu Gong, Yu Wang, Haodong Chen, Sining Chen, Qingsong Wang


The accident and death data from 2002 to 2015 were obtained from State Administration of Work Safety of China to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and accident. The statistical analysis shows that the accident, death and the death rate of per hundred million yuan present an exponential decreasing trend with the increase of national GDP. The chemical accident data in different provinces were further analyzed. It shows that the dangerous chemical accidents primarily distribute in the regions with better economic development, so more safety measures should be taken to prevent the accidents during economic development. In addition, the next three years of accidents were predicted based on auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that the following two years accidents predicted will be reduced by 4.3% and 6.5% than the last year.

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