Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Emel Siklar, Ilyas Siklar


This study uses the Butterworth filter to decompose cyclical signals at low and high frequencies in the production data of the manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors. At low frequencies, the production trend exhibits considerable differences among industrial activities while most of the sub-sectors are more sensitive to common cycle than their own dynamics at high frequencies. Moreover, it is predicted that changes in the manufacture of basic metals sub-sector production can be used as a leading indicator for the expansion and contraction periods of the common cycle estimated for the manufacturing industry.

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Business and Economic Research  ISSN 2162-4860

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