Improving Risk-management Strategies Through Technical and Economic Alternatives in Moroccan Rainfed Agriculture: Target MOTAD Modeling Approach

Abstract

In the face of growing challenges posed by climate change, enhancing the resilience of the agricultural sector has become a crucial issue to ensure food security and achieve the sustainable development goals. In rainfed areas, agricultural production and the use of natural resources are directly linked to climatic conditions, which explains the multiplicity of adaptation strategies employed by farming households to ensure the resilience of agricultural systems. This research reflects the concerns regarding the strengthening of agricultural resilience in semi-arid regions. The research examines through a Target MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation)  model the assessment of different risk level scenarios among farmers in the studied area. The findings reveal that these farmers exhibit a relatively high degree of risk aversion, with an estimated coefficient of ϕ = 1.8. This analysis highlights how farmers balance the risks associated with crop failures and income variability due to climatic uncertainties.The findings underscore the complexity of implementing adaptation strategies that minimize risks while ensuring long-term resilience. Ultimately, the study offers practical insights into how climate resilience can be strengthened through targeted interventions, focusing on both technological adoption and risk management for vulnerable farming communities.