The Climate–Insecurity Nexus And Youth Migration As Constrained Adaptation: Evidence From Burhakaba District, Somalia

Abstract

In fragile and conflict-affected settings, climate variability and insecurity increasingly interact to shape patterns of human mobility. However, localized empirical evidence explaining how these forces jointly influence youth migration decisions remains limited. This study examines the climate–insecurity–migration nexus in Burhakaba District, Southwest State of Somalia. Using a cross-sectional survey of 80 youth respondents selected through purposive sampling, the study analyzes primary data using descriptive statistics in SPSS. The findings reveal that youth migration is driven by the cumulative effects of recurrent droughts, loss of agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, high unemployment, persistent insecurity, and weak governance structures. Climate-related stress intensifies resource scarcity and inter-communal tensions, while insecurity undermines institutional trust and economic stability. In this context, migration emerges not primarily as an aspirational choice but as a form of constrained adaptation to structural vulnerability. The study highlights the need for integrated policy interventions that simultaneously address climate resilience, youth employment, and local peacebuilding to reduce distress-driven migration.